Swine Flu?

Effect Measure...

Friday April 24, 1:40 pm: AP and NYT reporting that Mexican authorities are saying that they have determined that 16 of 60 deaths are "swine flu," with 44 more being tested. They have yet to confirm whether it is the same as the California/Texas cases, but that's a bit irrelevant since either way it sounds like a very worrisome development. There are already a reported 930 plus cases, with schools closed in Mexico City and contemplation of closing government offices. Obama has been notified and the White House is following the situation. WHO and CDC have activated their emergency centers and there is consideration at WHO of increasing the pandemic alert level.

Things are changing too fast for any reasonable speculation at this point.

The NYT piece has:

It first looked mostly like a swine virus but closer analysis showed it is a never-before-seen mixture of swine, human and avian viruses, according to the CDC.

"We do not have enough information to fully assess the health threat posed by this new swine flu virus," Besser said.

[...]

The virus is an influenza A virus, carrying the designation H1N1. It contains DNA from avian, swine and human viruses, including elements from European and Asian swine viruses, the CDC has said.

[The CDC will post daily updates here].

More from Effect Measure: Latest on swine flu from CDC

CDC is not at the point of declaring this the start of a pandemic. WHO is said to be convening its expert committee to decide whether to raise the pandemic threat level from phase 3 to phase 4 (novel virus, ongoing transmission in an area). In response to a question about whether there would be any attempt at containment, he said the obvious: the cat's out of the bag. There are scattered cases without obvious links. It has likely gone through several person to person transmission cycles and is not confined to a focus or geographic area.