What are the chances?
SM provides the idea for this post. Pardon us for the math...
In a group of people of size r, what is the probability that two people share the same birthday? (Discounting leap days...)
TC = Total potential combinations of unique birthdays = 365 * 364 * 363 * ... * 365-r+1.
Probability of all unique birthdays = TC / (365^^r).
Probability of not all unique birthdays = 1 - (TC/(365^^r)).
Some examples:
# people | Prob (all unique) | Prob (not all unique) |
---------- | ----------------- | --------------------- |
1 | 1.000 | 0 |
10 | 0.883 | 0.117 |
20 | 0.5885 | 0.4115 |
30 | 0.293 | 0.707 |
40 | 0.1087 | 0.8913 |
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